A Nation of Hot and Cold Running Presidents

What America needs is a Bill James of politics — someone who can crunch the numbers to predict elections not simply based on polls, but before meaningful polls even occur.  I am not that person, but I am prepared whoever the right person is to give him or her a good start.

Unlike our mates, where we find ourselves attracted to the same kind of person (“mommy” or “daddy”) despite our best intentions, we are not so emotionally involved in electoral choices.  We vote for someone, maybe even enthusiastically, but our enthusiasm almost always wains, and we look for another candidate.

My observation is that the candidate we choose next is not based on party or ideology (which few people in America really know much about) but on personality.  The current president is always found wanting, and we want someone new, someone different — in fact, someone who is as much the opposite as the existing president.

These comparisons are easy to generate for those playing at home, but let me give you 2 examples and you’ll see what I mean:


1992 Election
Poppy Bush Bill Clinton
Intelligence Not so much Smart
Class Upper Lower
Temper Reserved Hot
Body Type Lean Not so much


2000 Election
Bush Jr. Obama
Intelligence Not so much Smart
Class Upper Lower
Temper Obstinate Cerebral
Body Type Athletic Athletic

I think the political Bill James can build this out, but it’s easy to see that each successful presidential candidate is almost exactly the opposite of the other, with the exception of body type.

So let’s use this simple rubric to examine how might be the next president.

Chris Christie is extraordinarily well positioned (negating even the body type), even though he might have gone a bridge too far.  Hillary is in trouble if she runs on her intelligence and extensive experience.  She needs to dumb it down while emphasizing her somewhat bourgeois roots.  Jeb Bush would also have to dumb it down (although for him, maybe not a whole lot).  Rand Paul, however, really shines.

I’m sure there are many other variables that need to be considered (by the Bill James type), but until then, ladies and gentlemen, I give you the next president of the United States — the dumb, rich and obstinate Rand Paul.



Bush Clinton
Intelligence Lean Not so much

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